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Climate Futures: A Buyer’s Guide

| Monday February 6th, 2006 | 8 Comments

climate.jpgNo…the title is not about “green tags” or stock picks. It’s about figuring out how the majority of US citizens who simply “don’t buy it”…”it” being the risk posed by climate change to personal health, to all of earth’s living systems, and to our children’s future…will sit up and pay attention to the management of climate risk.
For this to happen, we conservationists, environmentalists, green designers…let them call us whatever they like… need to escape our own denial about the Seriously Bad News all around us. The reality is that only a minority of the US population would, under present circumstance, allow their attitudes and behaviors to be influenced by the climate models, formal risk analysis, or pictures of melting glaciers. The reasons are several and powerful. Consider: A substantial percent of US citizens are illiterate. A great many of us think that the historic photos of humans walking on the moon were Hollywood-staged (a strong clue about the power of superstition and ignorance of technology). Perhaps a quarter of us believe that dinosaurs crowded into a literal Noah’s Ark. Many more of us think that a free market somehow magically synchronizes with nature’s demands (MBAs are taught this in Harvard Business School. If you paid a half million for your degree you might be defensive about someone saying everything you learned is wrong). Privately funded Think Tanks attack grade school curricula that encourage recycling and anything else “green”. And capping it off, broadcast media skip the reporting of facts and plausible alternatives in favor of single-minded political opinion. It’s good for the ratings. And, of course, those who would be most influenced by “science” apparently hold little political power at the Federal level.


This “Bad News” is amplified by a recent epidemic of free market utopianism. Utopianism is based on hope. Challenging hopeful beliefs is likely to be ineffective and could be a self-defeating strategy. Think how it feels when a ‘Freemarketopian’ hollers about government subsidy of renewable energy! Tune out time.
Our exploration starts with the assumption that all the above are going to stay just as they are for a long time. In other words, all are predetermined elements of every future direction we might imagine. Gulp.
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What role do we imagine the US Federal Government could play to respond seriously to climate change, were attitudes to shift? Could be as small as research funding or a purchasing policy, or as great as direct technology investment. Let’s assume that the role is in between these extremes and flesh that out later.
Think about today’s high-flying opinion leaders. Those would be the “base” we so often hear of, which is made up of variously overlapping groups of the passionately religious, small town rural residents, “exurbanites”, corporate executives of all stripes, the wealthy or wanna-be rich, and the pundits. What holds them together? What do they fear losing if climate change were taken seriously?
Here’s my starter list of high-level scare factors that keep people in emotionally-led denial. You can probably add a bunch.
· Reduced salaries and benefits for utility company execs.
· Being forced to admit that human kind can affect change on scale previously only attributed to a supreme being.
· Accepting that openly socialistic societies have advantages as well as drawbacks.
· Accepting that pollutant assimilation has limits from the local to the planetary scale.
· Understanding that a whole raft of profitable business models is fundamentally unsustainable over the long term.
What would it take to explode the opinion leader’s heads enough to reveal the invisible to them? The Dustbowl years of the 1930’s provide a fair analogy. Just prior to when that historic drought set in, a very large segment of the US’ population lived on farms: at least 45%. Markets for agricultural products were booming, trees were removed from the most productive farmlands, slash-and-burn style, and prairie soils were ploughed from fence to fence. The most erodable hillsides were laid bare. Along came extended drought and the nation’s food basket crumbled. Farm losses were severe; and, unemployment, and population shifts amplified stock market volatility (a point often overlooked by economists who see the Great Depression solely in economic terms). Rural population loss from the Dust Bowl states continues to this day. An oversimplification, granted, but not a gross mischaracterization.
In the several decades following the Dust Bowl, huge Federal programs were established to make farming on the Great Plains and Midwest lands sustainable. Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) participants helped reestablish “windbreaks” of trees and were responsible for the replanting of large tracts of forests. Just as important, the Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service ASCS), and Soil Conservation Service (SCS) were established and funded by Congress. Because of these three government efforts, soil loss from wind erosion was gradually reduced. When the rains returned almost a decade after the start of the drought, modern industrialized farming practices were developed in lock step with conservation practices. The wind rows are still there. This process, come to think of it, is not that different that what is going on right now in China!
What sort of large scale changes could set off a similar reaction in US governance with regard to climate change? Is there really any chance of that happening soon, what with most climate change impact scenarios being on the scale of half to full century? Yes there is.
It is entirely plausible that the next several years will bring a string of “blockbuster” hurricanes, hitting the Gulf Coast with a collective power (frequency times intensity) greatly exceeding anything experienced since European settlement. Not only does lighting often strike the same tree or building twice (that’s why Franklin invented lightning rods) so might hurricanes strike the same areas year after year. Of course is it also plausible that we could have a few years with nary a hurricane exerting more than Level II force at landfall. The point is simply that plausibility goes either way. How many times does a coastal area get hit in sequence before banks refuse to re-issue loans, before insurance companies draw “red lines” along the shore, before a tourist industry collapses and people migrate away en-masse?
It’s also plausible that the price of oil and gas could go even higher than was seen during the late summer and fall of 2005. Layer upon that a geopolitical event that cuts off imports and you have the makings of a day of sustainability reckoning.
In closing, I’d like to go on record with a warning to all the greens/environmentalists/NGO’s. Saying “I told you so”, even metaphorically, is self defeating in the extreme. Don’t even think about it. The rules of the game, going forward, are to propose constructive solutions. We’re going to get very good at that. Might as well get some practice now.


▼▼▼      8 Comments     ▼▼▼

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  • Carl Sparre

    Just wanted to say that from here in Australia, the debate is fascinating. Great Britain appear ready to have their green revolution, while simultaneously in the US, the love affair with the automobile continues without a hint of environmental awareness.
    Australia seems to be somewhere in between. I expect we will awaken soon after the Brits, it depends on the rain! While you have your hurricanes, we have our droughts, or more correctly, the loss of long heavy falls that produce runoff and drinking water. In Perth the situation is critical. In Sydney, our dams seem to be hovering at the 40% mark, unsure about which direction to push history.
    We too have a government who steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with Kyoto. Partly because we do what we are told by the US, but mostly because coal is a big export earner for Australia. The average citizen here is still largely in the dark about climate change c.f. they have a pretty good grip on the balance of payments situation.
    Good luck and never say “can’t”. Global warming can be beaten!
    Carl Sparre,
    Sydney, Australia

  • http://www.odograph.com odograph

    Great post. I’ll probably blog a response later (or tomorrow) but to “scoop” myself, I think this has to be related to consumer/government debt. If we truly understood the future we wouldn’t have an average family credit card debt of $11,000+, and we’d have a little more action on global warming.

  • http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com Mark Brandon

    For most people, it’s understandable that climate change isn’t at the forefront. It’s all one can manage to get yourself to work, take the kids to school, get them home, cook dinner, and maybe get some exercise in any given day. Those of us that have the luxury of having great jobs where all we do is opine on the great questions of the day can easily forget how most people live.
    That is why we — as a Sustainable movement — have to resolve to make the alternatives so appealing as to make it a no-brainer to make sustainable choices. I am constantly disappointed by the green marketers who choose to charge a premium because some LOHAS marketing study confirms that green consumers are willing to pay more. I pay $5.45 for a gallon of organic milk, when the non-organic stuff right next to it is selling for $3.25. Even though I have thought through the environmental and health benefits of organic milk, I still grit my teeth when buying that Horizon. Most John Q. Publics, living paycheck to paycheck, would not think twice about going with the less expensive variety. Why do unbleached coffee filters cost 60 percent more than the standard white ones? Why does a ream of recycled paper cost more than the paper from the clear cut forest? Close to my wallet, why do socially responsible mutual funds charge up to twice the management fee of a non-SRI fund? I make a point of advising my individual clients to skip these alternatives and go direct, because it is a rip-off. We must do better.
    Mark Brandon
    Sustainable Log – News and Views for Socially Responsible Investors
    http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com
    http://www.firstsustainable.com
    When you subscribe to Sustainable Log, we give $1 to Alternative Gifts International in support of a cause of your choice.

  • frank

    I think awareness needs to be generated from the bottom up not the top down. Starting with the consumer. We need to promote these changes with in our own families & communtities. Everyone can make a difference. Sometimes its as simple as changing a lightbulb! If we as a people wait for the our goverments to promote change it will never happen until “it” happens & then its too late.

  • Liza

    So, to pick up on Mark Brandon’s comments above, let’s see how many habits/practices already exist out there that are no-brainers.
    In the spirit of harnessing the wisdom of crowds, see if you can name three things that are already no-brainer green things to do today (no fair repeating what someone else has already said). Let’s see how many we can come up with.
    I’ll start:
    – Recycle paper, glass, cans (assuming your municipality has such a program)
    – Compost (if you have a garden or container boxes)
    – Walk to errands that are at least a 1/4 mile or less from you & Bike to errands that are at least a mile or less from you
    Now your turn. What three habits/practices can you add to the list?

  • A Sustainable Train of Thought

    Denial

    An article over at WorldChanging talks about some factors which we need to confront when helping people understand and take seriously the effects of climate change.
    Among the list they’re building lurks the following entry:
    Being forced t…

  • http://plawiuk.blogspot.com Eugene Plawiuk

    Thanks for the post I have quoted from it in my blog article Damn Cold. I am from Alberta and the Candian praires as part of the Palliser Plain suffered the same dust bowl conditions during the Great Depression.

  • Carl Sparre

    More than a year and half since I posted the first entry above, I’m happy to say that the Australian story has a happy ending. We chucked out the Howard Government and replaced it with the Kyoto Protocol supporting Kevin Rudd Labor Government.
    Full story at http://www.blognow.com.au/600letters