Comments on: Airline Travel Set to Increase Up To 600% By 2050 As US And Europe Row Over Carbon Offsetting

By: angelique van engelen

angelique van engelen — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:01:15 +0000

The figure 200 to 600 percent is taken from a Friend of the Earth official. I think that it’s quite realistic. In past decades similar growth rates have been seen;
IATA’s numbers are that annual growth rates for international air travel are around the 6.5%. Since we’re 42 years away from 2050, that’s a growth of 42×6.5=273 percent.
Domestic travel around the globe is rising by just over 5% on average, so that results in a number that’s slightly over 200%.
Then there’s air freight which is growing at around the same level as international passenger travel.
So we probably easily see growth of well over 600% by 2050.
What’s more, airlines might start to find alternatives to costly kerosine. KLM is already using algae based bio fuels which is stuff that’s rather easy to produce.
I don’t believe the end is in sight for the airline industry. Not at all.

By: Mike

Mike — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 02:39:30 +0000

By 2050 Airline travel by the masses will be only a memory. The days of cheap fuel are over. A business, family, vacationer will not be aqble to afford air travel.

By: Torrance Jacs

Torrance Jacs — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 17:53:49 +0000

Mervyn, I think you may be right to some extent, but air travel will certainly continue to grow, though perhaps not as much as 600%. (frankly a few less Ryan Air flights might make tourist destinations a little nicer)…

By: Meryn Stol

Meryn Stol — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:27:54 +0000

I don’t believe this projection. I think it’s based on extrapolation of current trends, not taking resource constraints, and especially human psychology into account.
I find it hard to believe developing countries will follow the same development path as the west. They probably leapfrog all over air travel, that is, move straight to VR presence.