Comments on: Tesla’s Model S: Beginning of the End for the Big Three?

By: Infineon Raceway Shows Speed Freaks that Green Means Excitement | Bright Puma

Sat, 12 Feb 2011 06:47:51 +0000

[...] electric (and other) vehicles have proven to be items that consistently capture the imagination, as Tesla Motors has shown, and I believe that initiatives like Infineon’s may represent a “sea [...]

By: Infineon Raceway Shows Speed Freaks that Green Means Excitement | Triple Pundit: People, Planet, Profit

Wed, 01 Dec 2010 10:03:22 +0000

By: Nickd

Nickd — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 19:10:16 +0000

ian – no hate here, my friend. just a little inside chat about what goes on in silicon valley. dont worry your pretty little head.

By: ian

ian — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:41:51 +0000

So captain haterade (NickD) what Detroit car company do you work for?
A)They don’t have to “re-learn or re-invent” mass production. They have to hire someone who knows how, not hard with how the other car manufacturers are doing.
B)Vanity play? If it was just a vanity play they would have stopped when the owners had their roadstars, they have them, and they haven’t stopped.
C)you keep going on about how they need 350M loan, well how much has Detroit taken in the last couple months? 100 times that? They’ll get the loan.

By: Nickd

Nickd — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:00:00 +0000

Semantics. They are still building custom cars. Tesla can’t build a factory to mass produce without a $350+M loan guaranteed by taxpayers. Even with taxpayer money, we have to trust that they can re-learn or re-invent the art and science of mass production. That’s a bad bet.
It’s very rare in startup culture to see the patience and temperment for that kind of systems thinking, and it’s particularly unlikely in startups that are clear vanity plays.
Best case scenario is that Tesla is bought at a discount by a company that actually has experience building and selling millions of units.

By: Durkman

Durkman — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 15:27:42 +0000

‘jumped the shark’ isn’t the right term, though I know what you mean.

By: Steve Puma

Steve Puma — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:54:19 +0000

I do not believe that this is a auto show "dog and pony show". Tesla will be starting construction the factory that the Model S will be built in in a few weeks: Tesla Motors to Produce All-electric Luxury Sedan in California

By: yyrkoon

yyrkoon — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:46:21 +0000

Exciting as this is, there is no beginning of the end until these companies are shipping these cars in quantities. We’re all sick of prototypes and demos and auto show dog and pony shows. We want to pick these up at the dealerships and drive them off the lots. Til then, less talk, more shipping.

By: Steve Puma

Steve Puma — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:41:20 +0000

Nickd: I take issue with two of your statements:
“By their own admission, Tesla is not in production yet”
According to this press release, the company disagrees with your statement:
Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster
In any case, Tesla cannot sell prototypes. By U.S. law, a “prototype” vehicle cannot be sold to customers. As a matter of fact, they must be destroyed, something I was shocked to hear when I toured the Tesla factory. Unfortunately, this is the price to be paid for developing a production car.
“Motor vehicles are hardly “technologies in their early stages”. “
The auto as a whole may not be an early-stage technology, but lightweight rechargeable batteries that can power a car definitely are. Especially with the range needed for the U.S. market.

By: ProofReader

ProofReader — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:20:01 +0000

“Malaysia-based Proton to deliver a much more basic all-electric car to the US by the end of 1999 and priced under $33,000.” — With the retroactive ten-year rebate of $3000 a year, the net cost is only $3000. They’re going to sell a bundle of these!!!

By: Terry S

Terry S — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:17:11 +0000

I think there’s some truth to this, but not with the government bailing out Detroit the way it has been. Tesla is still a tiny player (so is Fisker for that matter). I’m not saying those companies need massive taxpayer money, but the playing field is definitely not level yet – think about the Tucker, that still applies.
The good news is that with Obama’s recently heavy hand toward the big three (or the big 2 1/2 I should say) we’re likely to see some innovation coming – maybe they’ll start buying up the little guys like Tesla.

By: Nickd

Nickd — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 12:01:02 +0000

a) By their own admission, Tesla is not in production yet (they make it clear they need taxpayer money to do that). Ergo, they are still making prototypes.
b) 300 is a very very very small number when it comes to car manufacturing. GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda make millions of vehicles each year.
c) Interesting to refer to the manufacture of millions of electric vehicles for real people in the real world as a “niche”
d) Untrue that Tesla is not positioning itself to make inexpensive vehicles. Just listen to their positioning as they introduced the Model S. It’s key to their pitch for taxpayer money.
e) Motor vehicles are hardly “technologies in their early stages”. Millions and millions of cars have been made, and everybody from the Chinese to GM are getting ready to release electric cars. It’s a mass production problem – not one well suited to startups.
f) Tesla is a classic serial entrepreneur vanity play that has captured the imagination of Sand Hill Road, not America. It happens. Even the great Jim Clark ended up investing in Florida real estate.

By: Steve Puma

Steve Puma — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 11:27:30 +0000

Nickd: Tesla is far from a company that only produces a “few prototypes – or even custom cars”. The company’s Roadster model is a production car with over 300 already on the road, and over 1,000 on order. This is pretty good for a car that costs $100,000!
As I mentioned in my article, Tesla is not positioning itself to produce an “inexpensive vehicle”. That niche will most likely be filled by companies like Detroit Electric.
Like many technologies in their early stages, the wealthy few pay for the development of the technology in its infancy. The lessons learned trickle down to mass produced, cheap products for the masses. This was true for the cell phone, the computer, and even the original automobiles, and it will be true for the electric car as well.
The importance of a company like Tesla is that it has captured the imagination of the public, and introduced the possibility that an electric car is more than just a golf cart.

By: Nickd

Nickd — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 11:07:27 +0000

There is an enormous difference between building a few prototypes – or even custom cars – and mass producing a consistently reliable and inexpensive vehicle. Tesla won’t even start production until 2011 – assuming they get a $300+M federal loan. If we let the existing automotive food chain collapse in the meantime, we’ll all be bumming rides (of 300 miles or less) from the few venture capitalists who were able to afford the prototypes. When you hear Tesla, think McLauren.