J.D. Power: Hybrid and EV Cars Will Be 3.5% of Sales by 2015

Somehow it seems appropriate that an outfit named J.D. Power and Assoc. is weighing-in with some optimism on the future of electric-powered vehicles as a power behind the drive to “go green.”

A report this week from the customer satisfaction, buyer behavior and product quality rating firm says global alternative vehicle sales are rising and that sales will get a further lift when battery electric vehicles (BEVs) start to enter the market in larger numbers next year.

But while the percentage increases look good, sales on a unit basis will remain small, hardly a blip in the scheme of things. And this sector, which includes hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), will remain dominated by the gas-electric hybrid segment for the immediate future.

“Concerns about the cost and environmental effect of gasoline, rising worries and energy security in many countries, and the improving performance of alternative fuel vehicles are resulting in rising sales of gas/electric, hybrid, plug-in and battery powered cars worldwide,” the report says. It’s a four-page ‘Guest Opinion’ released by the financial rating company Standard & Poor’s, which like J.D. Power is a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Cos.

J.D. Power’s report estimates that global sales of these alternatively-powered vehicles this year will reach 940,000 units, up 28 percent over the 732,000 units in 2009.

It also projects that by 2015  hybrid and electric vehicles will surpass three million units each year, representing 3.4 percent of global light-vehicle sales.

Over the next few years, J.D. Power says gas/electric hybrids will account for more than 98 percent of those sales. By 2015, the report continues the U.S. will account for 55 percent of global hybrid sales (1.3 million units), with Asia at about 30 percent.

By that year battery electrics will be making market inroads. Last year only 7,000 such vehicles were sold worldwide, not even one-tenth of 1 percent of the market. “We think improvements in battery technology, and thus driving range, will boost BEV sales worldwide to 23,000 units this year and 500,000 in 2015,” the report says. Even then battery-powered cars will comprise less than 1 percent of total global light-vehicle sales.

The report wheels out all of the standard arguments on why this market can’t or won’t grow at a sprightlier pace: high cost, short driving range, uncertainty about availability and the cost of battery replacement systems, and few BEV charging stations.

As usual China looks to lead the way. “China is emerging as a clean energy powerhouse – and a key element of its strategy is to pump money into alternative energy cars,” the report says. “We believe China carries the greatest potential for developing a BEV market in the midterm – within five years.” Power also said that nearly one-half of global BEV sales in 2015 will be in China, “Where electric-battery vehicles have generated significant consumer interest thanks in part to aggressive marketing.”

What if gasoline stations were someday replaced by alternative fuel stations? That vision is not all that outlandish, what with 3Ps’ June 18 report that Coulomb Technologies plans to install nearly 5,000 electric car charging stations across the U.S. next year.

So then, what if the major carmakers just stopped making internal combustion engines and instead started making alternative-fuel engines? No matter how fuel efficient gas engines are made they still use gas. Or maybe if carmakers at least began phasing out new gasoline engines over a short time span? Ridiculous and impossible? A tree-hugging pipe dream? Probably so.

But drastic action and radical strategies are needed to break the globes’ dependence on oil. As long as carmakers continue to feed the need for fossil fuels with the products they build, dependence on oil and subservience to Big Oil will never diminish, and the damage to global economies, security and the environment will continue unabated.

It’s nice that hybrid and EV sales are increasing, but a 3.4 percent piece of the sales pie by 2015 is not good enough or fast enough; it’s an alternative that Big Oil can easily take to the bank for years to come.

writer, editor, reader and general good (ok mostly good, well sometimes good) guy trying to get by