3p Contributor: Shannon Arvizu
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2014: New and Improved Peak Oil Forecast
Global Oil Production
While petroleum companies have announced record profits as of late, a new study published in Energy & Fuels has some startling news. Using an improved forecasting model, researchers from Kuwait University and Kuwaiti Oil Company predict that conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.
“Peak oil” refers to the point at which oil production reaches a maximum output and then declines. Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues have developed a new way to calculate peak oil that builds upon the Hubbert model. The Hubbert forecast model is known for accurately predicting peak oil production in the United States in 1970. However, this model relies upon a single production cycle within each country.
The new model includes several production cycles that reflect contemporary oil production. The additional production cycles are influenced by technology advances, government regulations, economic conditions, and political events. According to the authors, “The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven, which allows a continuous updating once new data is available.”
Obama Calls for End of Oil Subsidies in 2011 Budget
Sun Sets for Oil Subsidies?
In Obama’s 2011 FY budget proposal sent to Congress this week, the administration calls for eliminating more than $2.7 billion in tax subsidies for oil, coal and gas industries. As a result, more than $38.8 billion dollars in tax revenue could be generated for the federal government over the course of the next ten years.
The budget proposal also cuts funding provided through the Department of Energy for expensive petroleum exploration, including the Ultra-Deepwater exploration program (saving $50 million) and expansion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (saving $71 million).
With this proposal, Obama is sending a loud and clear message that the nation is moving towards a clean energy future. Overall, the budget provides over $28 billion for the DOE in 2011, a 7% increase over this year’s budget estimates. Much of this increase is for the support of renewable energy generation and advanced vehicle technologies.
This is Not Yo Mama’s Nissan Altima
The 2010 Nissan Altima Hybrid is definitely a step up from its previous incarnations. I test drove this vehicle this past week across Southern California as part of my 2010 hybrid challenge. In a quest to see which 2010 hybrid model offers the best bang for the buck, I drove the Altima Hybrid 600 miles in six days. The result: I averaged 34.4 MPG on a single tank of gas.
Like other full hybrids on the market, the Altima Hybid features regenerative braking that allows you to charge the battery while driving. The Altima Hybrid also jumps into zero-emission electric vehicle mode when in stop-and-go traffic or waiting in the drive-thru lane. In addition, its 40-HP electric power motor allows you to coast gently upon releasing the gas pedal, thereby increasing further fuel savings.
Climate Change Like You’ve Never Seen
A riveting photo essay of images depicting climate change was recently published online. The essay, produced by Magnum in Motion and commissioned by the United Nations Development Program, is based on information found in the latest UNDP report.
What I like the most about this photo essay is the emphasis placed on promoting assistance to developing countries. It is now almost a mantra that poor countries contribute the least to climate change, but are also the most vulnerable to its impacts. It is one thing to hear such statements, but quite another to see such stark, visual representations of what this looks like.
Cruisin in the Fusion: Does Ford’s Latest Hybrid Earn its Green Cred?
After six days and more than 400 miles of real-world road testing of the 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid, I am happy to report that the car has earned its green cred. It travels more than 600 miles on a single tank of gas and provides instantaneous MPG performance, based on current driving patterns. I took it all across Southern California during the holiday season, from the San Clemente shoreline to the San Bernardino mountains. All without stopping once at a gas station.
As I’ve written elsewhere, what I have found most appealing about the Fusion Hybrid is its unique Eco-Gauge digital dashboard. The display acts as an efficiency driving coach. Driving green is almost a game, as I aimed to maximize the number of digital green leaves I could earn by moderately accelerating and decelerating.
In terms of overall fuel economy, I averaged 36.6 MPG (that is combined city and highway driving). On the highway, I averaged 44.4 MPG (a higher rating than the 41 MPG that the EPA reported). While driving up the mountains, my fuel economy dipped significantly due to the increased power needed to climb 3000 feet of elevation, over 11 miles. On the way down, however, I hardly used the gas pedal at all – just regenerative braking and cruise mode – and I averaged 99.9 MPG. Not bad, eh?
China Produces More Cars than the U.S.
It’s true: The latest figures from the U.S. Department of Transportation show that China surpassed the U.S. last year in the total number of cars produced. This is a radical shift from 1980, when the U.S. manufactured 56 times more vehicles than China. In 2008, China produced 9.5 million vehicles, while the U.S. produced 8.7 million vehicles.
What has caused this change? As we know, China’s growing middle class has accelerated demand for convenient, personal mobility. We also know vehicle production in the U.S. has stagnated due to the economic downturn. Given current trends, it is reasonable to assume that China will continue to surpass U.S. vehicle production in the near future.
When Green Marketing Goes Wrong: The Chevy Volt Dance
Have you seen the hideous “Chevy Volt Song and Dance” performed at the L.A. Auto Show this year? This is a classic example of green marketing gone wrong. The song is cheesy, the dancers perform an uninspired dance, and the whole spectacle is just plain painful to watch.
What Chevy should have done is take a cue from They Might Be Giants. The band produced one of the most well-made, eco-friendly tunes to date, as well as a high quality animation video to accompany it. The video is adorable and makes viewers feel so cozy watching the driver and puppy trail along the beautiful night landscape.
A song and dance can work well for a product if it engages the emotions of potential customers; it must be done tastefully and attractively. We know that with the right tune and the right image, this type of marketing has the potential to resonate strongly with the masses.
Los Angeles: The New Electric Car Launchpad?
The unthinkable has happened. Los Angeles plans on resurrecting the city’s 400 abandoned electric vehicle charging stations that have been collecting dust for the past nine years, and to also add one hundred more, its mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, announced early this month at the LA Auto Show. In addition, the city plans to offer incentives of up to $2000 each for the first 5000 residential customers to install home chargers for their plug-in vehicles. To top it all off, the city has earmarked $6 million to purchase its own electric fleet.
This plan is intended to attract battery and charging station manufacturers to Los Angeles. The city hopes to generate green jobs, lure clean tech investors, reduce pollution, and reduce oil consumption.
New Study: How Soon Can We Expect Wide Benefits from Plug-In Hybrids?
With GM’s Volt and Toyota’s Plug-In Prius coming to the market within the next two years, how soon can we expect plug-in hybrids to deliver on their social and ecological benefits? A new study by the National Academy of Sciences projects significant fuel savings and emissions reductions by 2030.
Is this soon enough? Some say this is a pessimistic, though realistic scenario. I believe, however, that the study makes some flawed assumptions and that it is still too early to predict market acceptance behavior.
According to the study, the main reason we should not expect significant penetration of plug-in hybrid vehicles before 2030 is the price differential. A plug-in hybrid with a 10-mile all electric range, such as the Toyota Plug-In Prius, is expected to add $6000 to the sticker price. A plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile all electric range, such as GM’s Volt, is expected to add $18,000 to the sticker price. Given current fuel prices and government support, the study projects 13 million plug-in hybrids by 2030 (out of 300 million vehicles).
L.A. Auto Show Award for Greenest Car: 2010 Ford Fusion
The 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid was awarded the “Most Environmentally Progressive Car of the Year” by “blogazine” Earth, Wind & Power (EWP) at the Los Angeles Auto Show Wednesday. This award is in addition to its other recent accolades, including Car and Driver’s “10Best” cars for 2010 and the Motor Trend 2010 Car of the Year Award. The car also got the highest customer satisfaction rating of any Ford vehicle, ever.
So…what is so awesome about the Fusion? Fuel economy. The Ford Fusion Hybrid gets 41 mpg in the city. Ford reports that this is “70 percent better than comparable non-hybrid models and 8 mpg better than the Toyota Camry Hybrid.”
The Fusion also has a unique “eco-gauge” digital dashboard designed to teach drivers how to increase energy efficiency by following cues that leverage the car’s features. For example, through strategic braking and steady acceleration, drivers can increase the amount of electricity used from regenerative braking. When drivers maximize their eco-performance, a digital tree on the readout grows leaves.
Cap-and-Trade: The Real Deal from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce may actually have a better idea than a cap-and-trade bill for cutting emissions. And, contrary to popular opinion, they do recognize climate change and the need for clean tech development.
This past week I interviewed Dan Letourneau, the Communications Director for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, as part of a clean car web radio show called the EVCast. What I learned was quite surprising, given the amount of negative attention the Chamber has been getting lately from environmental groups and the green media.
It appears that the main reason the Chamber opposes a cap-and-trade bill in Congress is because it believes that it will not do enough to help businesses incorporate clean tech into their operations. It has issued an official statement detailing its position and has created an affiliate Institute for 21st Century Energy to develop what they call a “common sense energy strategy.” Letourneau remarked that the Chamber has, in fact, proposed 88 different policy recommendations to Congress that reflect real-world approaches to helping businesses curb emissions.
So – what is the real deal here? Is this just a facade to cover up prior opposition to clean energy…or does the Chamber have a valid point? As I’ve written on TheCleanDeal, a climate treaty should work directly to implement clean technology in the market place. A “cap-and-trade” bill does not necessarily lead to mass market clean tech outcomes. In fact, under Europe’s carbon market system, it has often been cheaper to buy credits than invest in clean tech to reduce GHG emissions.
New Book Gives the Low-Down on Green Business Models
There’s a lot of hype in this field about how “green is gold.” But there is little hard evidence that shows actual trends and models in green business operations. A new book, “Hybrid Organizations: New Business Models for Environmental Leadership,” aims to fill that gap by providing up-to-date analysis of green start-up firms.
Of course, we have to start with what makes a “hybrid organization.” The authors recognize that there are a lot names thrown around these days for classifying companies with an explicit social or ecological mission. They define a hybrid organization as “a market oriented, mission-centered organization which operates in the blurred space between for-profit and nonprofit enterprises.”
A123: The Hottest New Player in the Clean Stock Market
Reuters reported this morning that clean tech investments have risen substantially this year. In the third quarter report just released, there were 112 deals totaling $1.9 billion that included investments in solar power, smart grids, biofuels, green building materials, and electric car technology.
Much of this enthusiasm is believed to be led by a new IPO entry in the clean stock market, A123. A123 stock increased 50% since last week and it is billed as “the most attractive” of recent public offerings.
Triple Pundit Takes A Ride in Ford’s New Electric Cars
At Ford’s Drive Green Forum in New York City recently, Triple Pundit got a first-hand look at the company’s new electric vehicle offerings. I took the 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid and the 2011 Ford all electric vehicle for a brief test drive. Both cars are part of Ford’s new electrification strategy for improving emissions and reducing oil consumption.
In terms of eco-performance and smart driver interaction experience, either of these vehicles could take the famed “Prius-Killler” title.
First, let’s look at fuel economy and energy usage. The Ford Fusion Hybrid gets 41 mpg in the city. Ford reports that this is “70 percent better than comparable non-hybrid models and 8 mpg better than the Toyota Camry Hybrid.”
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