Welcome to Road to Copenhagen
Follow along with 3p as we track the news and developments leading up to, and during, the COP15 Climate Conference taking place in Copenhagen in December 2009.
Follow along with 3p as we track the news and developments leading up to, and during, the COP15 Climate Conference taking place in Copenhagen in December 2009.
Avoiding COP15 Burnout with “Expectation Management”
Posted by Tom Schueneman November 16th, 2009 
2 Comments
“Climate change and climate policy in Europe and the U.S. – Opportunities and Challenges in the Run-up to the Copenhagen Summit and beyond”
Thus was billed a recent conference I attended last week at the Aspen Wye River Conference center located in rural Maryland along the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay. The two-day conference was yet another step in the Transatlantic Climate Bridge began earlier this year between Germany and the U.S. in hopes of fostering greater understanding and cooperation on energy and climate issues, especially now in the final days before the Copenhagen summit.
The conference brought together journalists from both sides of the pond, along with a select group of advisors, consultants, negotiators, and policy experts on the front line of the issues facing the world next month in Copenhagen. Since the journalists (and blogger) at the conference are subject to the Chatham House rules, I am not able to attribute specific positions to any particular speaker, but the ideas discussed and the perceptions explored in the dialog are worth summarizing – kicking it off with the burning question in the wake of news over the weekend that world leaders have “agreed not to agree” to a fully binding treaty at COP15: Is there any real hope left for “success” in Copenhagen?
In a word, yes. There is not only hope, but a realistic chance for success at Copenhagen. That is, if we can engage in “expectation management” and tailor a definition of success within those expectations – let the qualifications begin.
Barcelona Climate Talks End after a Week of Boycotts- Next Stop: Copenhagen
Posted by Tom Schueneman November 6th, 2009 2 Comments
The final week of climate negotiations in Barcelona have now ended. The last meeting before the main event in Copenhagen next month served to emphasize the lingering stalemate between rich and poor nations, and the equally unmoving impasse between political factions in the United States.
On Tuesday, delegations from 50 African nations boycotted the climate talks in Barcelona, insisting that developed nations must make stronger commitments for short-term emissions reduction targets – specifically in the neighborhood of 40% of 1990 levels by 2020 (in contrast, the Waxman-Markey bill that passed the House last summer, when referenced to 1990 levels, targets only about a 7% reduction in emissions). In Washington, Republicans in the Energy and Public Works Committee (EPW) staged their own boycott, failing to show for a markup session of the Kerry-Boxer climate and energy bill. The reason, they claimed, was because the bill needs more cost analysis from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Democrats countered, saying it was simply a stalling tactic, and that there is already extensive analysis in place. The ranking Republican on the EPW committee is Senator James Inhofe, who is nothing if not a vociferous climate change denier. The ability for the United States to break through their political logjam will directly influence how negotiations play out at the COP15 climate conference next month.
Talks resumed in Barcelona onWednesday, but key issues of mitigation targets and financing remain largely unchanged on Friday from where they started on Monday; the Democrats in the EPW Committee passed the Kerry-Boxer climate bill out of committee on an 11-1 without the Republicans present. Thus the stage is set, for better or worse, and there is but one stop left on the Road to Copenhagen. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer delivers his closing press briefing in the following video (see also Ben Jervey’s analysis from earlier this week.)
Facing Reality in Copenhagen
Posted by Tom Schueneman October 28th, 2009 2 Comments
The days grow short and with it the time left to lay a foundation that leads to an international climate treaty to which all nations – rich and poor, north and south – can agree.
As Copenhagen braces for an influx of delegates, press, policy experts, and leaders from all corners of the globe this December, many begin to brace for a new definition of what will constitute success at the COP15 climate talks. A definition based less on the “do-or-die” high expectations of a signed treaty by the end of the year and more on the reality of the work left to accomplish a deal and the time available to accomplish it.
It may be too much to hope that delegates negotiate a final resolution to the issues that carve a persistently wide gulf between developed and developing nations. Momentum for real progress has been slow going (though it’s building as a sense of urgency mounts).
Rich nations still squabble amongst themselves and developing nations aren’t too keen on forsaking their expanding fossil-fueled wealth, just when it really gets going–especially when nations already fat and happy on coal and oil seem unwilling to pull their own weight.
The situation isn’t likely to change much, at least not by December. Is COP15 therefore destined to fail? Not necessarily – even with the intractable issues before it.
Maldives Underwater Meeting Catches Media Attention
Posted by Brian Thurston October 15th, 2009 4 Comments
© CHIARA GOIA
Few people appear better positioned for Blog Action Day 2009 than Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed – and it’s been a busy year since he took office. Faced with growing threats of sea level rise, President Nasheed has made some bold claims since his election last November.
From his statement earlier this year that his government would set aside some of the $1 billion a year it earns from the travel and tourism industry to buy land to relocate his people, to his announcment last week that he will hold the first ever cabinet meeting underwater, President Nasheed is proving to be both bold and media savvy.
Obviously the Maldives and other small-island countries have a lot at stake in terms of climate change, and gimmick or not, the underwater meeting has garnered global media attention and it has put this country of less than 400,000 people front and center of the climate change conversation.
100 Places to Remember
Posted by Tom Schueneman October 15th, 2009 1 Comment
There are rising CO2 ppm numbers, warming and increasingly acidic oceans, shifting species populations, shrinking arctic sea-ice cover and volume… all manner of facts, figures, and data-crunching computer models to aid scientists in understanding the nature and consequences of climate disruption.
But there’s a more visceral aspect to global warming.
A feeling summoned even in the most cynical soul by a world still full of beauty and wonder, it is a strained thread that connects each human to the Earth and belies the competing economic models, political affiliations, and tribal xenophobias that have plagued humanity throughout time. But our time is different, and the consequences of our actions so enormous that we must be reminded what binds us together in a common global fate.
It is for that connection to the Earth we each share, for better or worse, that inspired Søren Rud to organize 100 Places to Remember Before They Disappear, a photo exhibition recently opened in Copenhagen. Meant as an inspiration for “the common person,” 100 Places is also a call to action for world leaders as they soon converge on the city to negotiate a climate treaty at the COP15 Climate Conference this December (and what inspires this post on Blog Action Day).
Buying Time: Cutting Non-CO2 Pollutants Will Slow Climate Change
Posted by Richard Levangie October 14th, 2009 2 Comments
Climate change isn’t only about carbon dioxide. So that’s why, in a world that is stepping close to a steep precipice, doing more to reduce non-CO2 climate change contributors such as black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), as well as expanding bio-sequestration through biochar production, might head global warming off at the pass, according to Nobel Laureate Dr. Mario Molina and co-authors in a paper published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The authors argue that this novel perspective could transform the debate at United Nations climate change conference slated for Copenhagen in December.
Scaling Back En Route to Copenhagen
Posted by Brian Thurston October 14th, 2009 1 Comment
About 53 days until COP15, and the word compromise is surfacing more and more in discussions around reaching an agreement in December. There is also worry that the U.S. will not have passed any sort of significant climate bill by then, thus hampering their ability to make any real CO2 emissions pledge.
In a joint report written by the Center for American Progress and the United Nations Foundation, a more manageable set of expectations is recommended to make important strides for talks to move forward – and this includes shelving the idea that developed nations will commit to binding emission target reductions.
Obama’s Nobel Prize – What Effect Could it Have on the Copenhagen Conference?
Posted by Sarah Harper October 12th, 2009 2 Comments
Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize score could have numerous implications – including potential benefits for the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen (scheduled for December 7th through 18th). According to a Reuters report, some analysts believe the award could push Obama to attend the Conference, in part because officials will hand over the prize in nearby Oslo on December 10th. Will Obama respond as such, and would his doing so impact the Conference’s success?
Despite the Obama administration’s sluggishness in passing climate legislation in time for the Copenhagen conference, the administration has, at least in intention, improved on the previous administration’s climate actions. Former President George W. Bush dropped efforts to get the Senate to ratify the Kyoto Protocol for 2020 (which all other industrialized nations adopted), while Obama is encouraging the US to assume a bigger role in a new global climate treaty. It’s this attitude that (at least in part) likely qualified him for the Prize and makes his attending the UN Conference a pressure point for many world leaders.
Bangkok Talks Conclude with Mixed Metaphors, Unfinished Business
Posted by Tom Schueneman October 9th, 2009 0 Comments
In a statement released at the conclusion of the two-week session of climate talks in Bangkok, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer talked of more clarity on the “bricks and mortar” of the agreed outcome in Copenhagen, but that “long-held differences” persist on coming to terms on mid-term targets and finance.
“A will has emerged in Bangkok to build the architecture to rapidly implement climate action,” said de Boer at a press briefing, “but significant differences remain. In December, citizens everywhere in the world have a right to know exactly what their governments will do to prevent dangerous climate change. What we must do now is step back from self interest and let common interest prevail.”
Using another metaphor, Jake Schmidt, International Policy Director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, spoke of the five principal negotiating elements of a Copenhagen agreement as the main parts of a well-tuned car – and how the “car” is leaving Bangkok with some “dents and rattles.”
What do these metaphors really mean as (to add my own metaphor) the clock ticks down on the road to Copenhagen?
Saudi Arabia to Seek Financial Aid if World Reduces Oil Dependence
Posted by Sarah Harper October 9th, 2009 25 Comments
Saudi Arabia may join the list of countries seeking financial aid over the UN climate deal. According to a Forbes.com report, during the UN’s recent greenhouse gas talks in Bangkok, Saudi Arabia campaigned quietly for financial compensation should a climate deal substantially reduce the world’s use of fossil fuels. The country appears to be motivated not by a need for assistance adapting to the impact of global warming but rather by a desire for compensation for decreased oil profits. Will the Saudis’ stipulation impact the development of an international climate treaty?
The Saudis’ campaign comes despite a recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report, which demonstrated that oil-rich nations would likely still profit with emissions regulations (sufficient for curbing climate change) in place. (According to the report, OPEC revenues would increase by $23 trillion between 2008 and 2030. This would be a fourfold increase in OPEC revenues’ growth rate between 1985 and 2007.)
Obama Aide Says Passage of Climate Bill Before Copenhagen Is Unlikely
Posted by Sarah Harper October 7th, 2009 0 Comments
President Obama’s aide and top climate and energy official, Carol Browner, confirmed Friday what many already feared: there is virtually no chance Congress will have a climate bill ready in time for the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen in December. Browner’s statement was the administration’s first definitive statement regarding passage of a climate and energy bill (or lack thereof). Delaying the bill will likely have a number of negative implications for the Copenhagen conference.
According to a report by the New York Times, in Browner’s words, the Obama administration would “like to be through the process,” but it’s “not going to happen.” However, the Senate may be able to complete its hearings on the bill before the Conference’s opening talks on December 7th. The administration also announced plans last week for new rules regulating greenhouse gases from large factories. Both gestures are intended to signal the US’s commitment to cutting CO2 emissions – an indication that could be crucial to the Conference’s success.
Several factors have contributed to the climate bill delay, including the healthcare debate, the process by which legislation is introduced and amended prior to passage, and what some would call procrastination. (The climate bill was introduced in the Senate only Wednesday – three months after the House passed its version of the bill.)
Will China Have Cap and Trade Before the US?
Posted by BC Upham October 6th, 2009 8 Comments
Underlying anxiety over China’s rapid economic advance, including its aggressive moves into clean technology, is an ideological uncertainty: is the Chinese system of government, which is non-democratic, but seemingly capable of moving quickly and unilaterally, fundamentally better than our messy democratic system that sometimes (all of the time?) hobbles its effectiveness with political bickering?
Now there is talk that China could announce a national cap and trade scheme as early as the Copenhagen climate talks in December, leapfrogging over the US.
Meanwhile, Washington’s version of cap and trade, a system to reduce pollution by capping emissions and trading emissions credits on an open market, has been declared DOA at least until next year, a victim of prolonged squabbling over health care and general political malaise.
Road to Copenhagen: Bali to Bangkok
Posted by Tom Schueneman October 2nd, 2009 1 Comment
The “Road to Copenhagen” began on the Indonesian island of Bali at the COP13 climate conference in December of 2007. COP13 charted the intended course toward Copenhagen, producing the Bali Roadmap (pdf) and the Bali Action Plan, setting forth the negotiating process designed to take the international community “beyond Kyoto” and produce an effective global response to the reality of climate change.
The Bali Roadmap set a path with numerous waypoints leading toward COP15, where the treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, expiring in 2012, will hopefully be signed. These waypoints have included numerous sessions of the Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA), and the Ad hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex/Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP), and COP14 in Poznań, Poland in December of last year.
This week marks the final push to Copenhagen, with the start of sessions of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP in Bangkok, Thailand.
Could a Nobel Peace Prize Speed Up Climate Talks?
Posted by Sarah Harper October 2nd, 2009 3 Comments
Guardians of the Nobel Peace Prize are getting creative in their attempt to speed up sluggish talks about climate. According to a Reuters report, the guardians are considering awarding an environmental Prize this year in order to prep world leaders for December’s UN Climate Conference and influence politicians dragging their feet on climate change. The thing is, the award would come just two years after the one awarded in 2007 (another was awarded in 2004). Would awarding another environmental Prize so soon have the desired effect?
Granting topical awards (e.g. environment, disarmament, human rights) to influence world events is an established tactic of the five-member Nobel Peace Prize panel. While some wonder whether handing out three environment awards in four years is excessive, others say the timing couldn’t be better. The prize would be announced on December 9th and handed over on the 10th – the anniversary of founder Alfred Nobel’s death – all amidst the Copenhagen Conference occurring between December 7th and 18th.
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