What's Next for the U.S. Wind Industry?

The U.S. wind industry suffered a devastating blow earlier this year when incoming U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly suspended the federal lease program for offshore wind farms. On land, though, the wind industry continues to take advantage of opportunities to meet the rising demand for renewable energy.

Barriers rise against the U.S. wind industry, offshore and on

While the offshore branch of the U.S. wind industry depends on coastal waters under federal jurisdiction, onshore wind is much less vulnerable to shifts in federal energy policy. Developers can continue to pursue opportunities on private land, and on public lands under state or local ownership, though in some cases federal permits may still apply.

Still, these windows of opportunity are shrinking as state and local policymakers take steps to restrict or stop the construction of new wind and solar farms. The spread of online misinformation about negative health impacts caused by wind farms has also been linked to rising opposition among the general public as well.

The trend is a clear one. Less than 300 local wind ordinances regulating things like the size of wind turbines and how far they must be from homes and other structures were in effect in 2018, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). That number ballooned to 1,853 by 2022, and additional restrictions have followed. “The most common types of ordinances were related to setbacks from structures, roads, and property lines; noise levels; and wind turbine heights,” NREL reported.

The window of opportunity is still open

Even under a more restricted scenario, onshore wind farms can continue to play a significant role in the nation’s energy transition. The U.S. has 14 terrawatts (14,000 gigawatts) of technically recoverable onshore wind energy under a restriction-free scenario, according to NREL. That shrinks to just 2 terrawatts if every community in the U.S. increases zoning setbacks and adopts other restrictions. However, NREL anticipates that 2 terrawatts of wind would still be sufficient to decarbonize the U.S. power grid, alongside the nation’s considerable solar resources. 

A new report from the energy data analysis firm Wood Mackenzie supports this outlook. New onshore wind capacity dipped to an 11-year low of 3.9 gigawatts in 2024, even though supportive federal policy was still operative under the Joe Biden administration, the report found. Yet even considering the sudden shift in federal energy policy after January 20 of this year, Wood Mackenzie anticipates a substantial increase in new wind capacity for 2025.

“Despite hitting the lowest installation mark since 2013 in 2024, the U.S. is set to surpass 160 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative installed onshore capacity by 2025. Onshore growth is projected to bounce back from 2024 and surpass 6.3 GW this year,” the report reads. For context, the U.S. had just under 150 gigawatts of on- and offshore wind power installed in 2023. 

Wind developers laid the groundwork for this year’s surge in 2023, expecting to benefit from federal tax credits, noted Wood Mackenzie analyst Stephen Maldonado. “Despite uncertainty created by the new administration, the massive number of orders placed in 2023, culminating in projects now under construction, support the short-term forecast,” Maldonado said in a statement.

A total of 10.8 gigawatts in onshore wind capacity are under construction or will be over the next two years, according to data compiled by Wood Mackenzie. Projects totaling another 3.9 gigawatts have also been announced but have not begun construction.

Policy matters for the U.S. wind industry

Over the longer term, Wood Mackenzie projects 33 gigawatts of new onshore capacity will be installed through 2029. Another 5.5 gigawatts is expected from repowering projects on existing wind farms, in which older equipment is replaced with new and more powerful turbines.

However, the cumulative impact of new obstacles and restrictions will make a significant difference over time. Wood Mackenzie anticipates the combination of onshore, offshore, and repowering projects will add 45.1 gigawatts of wind capacity to the nation’s grid through 2029. That is much lower than the firm's previous outlook of 75.8 gigawatts for the same timeline.

“The main driver has been multiple Executive Orders, which include a temporary withdrawal of offshore wind leasing areas and a halt to onshore projects on federal lands,” the firm noted, adding that cuts in the federal workforce could add delays to the permitting process. “These developments create a complex landscape for wind energy stakeholders,” the report concludes.

U.S. businesses want more clean power

One factor that could make a difference for the U.S. wind industry is pressure from utilities and businesses. The lower wind energy estimate comes at a time when commercial demand for electricity is skyrocketing, partly due to the rapid buildout of new data centers.

For tech companies seeking more energy, a speedy construction timeline is especially important. That works in favor of both the wind and solar industries, which can bring projects online quickly once approved. Natural gas power plant developers, in contrast, are experiencing supply chain backlogs that can stretch for years.

Depending on the region, wind and solar energy also cost less than fossil fuels or nuclear energy, adding to the attraction.
“I’ve been doing this for 35 years and I’ve never seen such high power demand — wind, solar, storage,” Jim Spencer, president and CEO of Exus Renewables North America, told Fast Company this week. Exus specializes in utility-scale projects.

Another firm working to fill the demand for utility-scale wind is the New York firm Soluna Holdings, which develops data centers in tandem with renewables. This month Soluna announced plans for Project Hedy, a new 120-megawatt data center in South Texas with a co-located 200-megawatt wind farm. “This agreement marks a significant milestone in Soluna’s mission to integrate computing with renewable energy,” the company noted in a press announcement. 

“This is another step forward in proving that flexible, large-scale computing can help renewable energy assets reach their full potential,” Soluna CEO John Belizaire added in a statement. 

In addition to demand for utility-scale wind farms, interest in small and mid-sized wind turbines is also beginning to rise among commercial and industrial energy users.

Whether or not the U.S. business community can exercise its voice to influence energy policy during the Trump administration remains to be seen. Either way, wind is not going away, and neither is the U.S. wind industry.