"Any Motor manufacturer without a compelling line up of electric vehicles [by 2025] is signing its death warrant."
This is an unequivocally bold assertion, not made by any government, EV manufacturer, media source or advocacy group, but rather, by the independent consulting and research organization IDTechEX, who claim to be the only analyst with 18 current reports - continuously updated - forecasting sales of electric vehicles and their components.
IDTechEx has been tracking developments in the electric vehicle market for the last eleven years by touring the world's companies, research institutes and conferences to gain insights into key technology changes and business opportunities in the EV market. They have just published their new 2012 forecast with a 10 year horizon, and whether you like EVs or not - their take is that they are here to stay.
Here are the headline forecasts from IDTechEX's analysis.
Additionally, they discuss that electric motors themselves will become a more significant cost component for makers, whereas today, expensive lithium-ion batteries are where much of the cost is incurred, such that, "the battery is the car." IDTechEx identifies that since the costs of magnetic materials such as dysprosium and neodymium are rocketing, leading electric motor manufacturers are racing towards making magnet free motors or those which avoid rare metals. Manufacturers sticking with conventional magnets and brush-motors will be "blown out of the business."
Clearly however, the consultancy considers any factors pulling against a wider-spread deployment of EVs are surmountable.
And in terms of the 10 year horizon, the future of the electric vehicle seems almost assured. To be sure, IDTechEx talks about EVs and hybrids almost interchangeably, such that it's almost irrelevant whether we are talking about pure EVs or hybrids as dominating the future of transportation - electric drive seems set to feature strongly in the transportation mix either way.
Image credit: David Villarreal Fernández
Phil Covington holds an MBA in Sustainable Management from Presidio Graduate School. In the past, he spent 16 years in the freight transportation and logistics industry. Today, Phil's writing focuses on transportation, forestry, technology and matters of sustainability in business.